BX2225 - Forecasting

Credit points:	03
Year:	2011
Student Contribution Band:	Band 3
Administered by:	School of Business

Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels. This subject deals with quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques, which are useful in the business and commercial environment. Topics include simple na?ve methods, smoothing techniques, regression approaches, Box-Jenkins' ARIMA, combining forecasts, and Delphi method of forecasting. Strong emphasis will be given to applications of forecasting techniques to real data arising from accounting, economics, finance, marketing, management and tourism to meet the demands of students. Applications are conducted by using Excel-based ForecastXTM Software and scientific calculator, for example, Casio-fX100AU, Casio fX-82MS or the like for better understanding the calculations involved in forecasting.

Learning Outcomes

• use a statistical package to test the properties of various forecasting models, correcting for common 'problems' (such as seasonality and serial correlation);
• interpret the forecast output of statistical software packages;
• evaluate a range of different quantitative and qualitative forecasts;
• interpret 'patterns' of data over time (trends, seasonality and other cyclical patterns), identify appropriate forecasting techniques;
• use a range of different forecasting techniques within a statistical package (including, but not limited to: moving averages; exponential smoothing; time-series regression; and Box- Jenkins ARIMA).

Graduate Qualities

• The ability to define and to solve problems in at least one discipline area;
• The ability to deploy critically evaluated information to practical ends;
• The ability to find and access information using appropriate media and technologies;
• The ability to evaluate that information;
• The ability to reflect on and evaluate learning, and to learn independently in a self directed manner;
• The ability to manage future career and personal development;
• The ability to generate, calculate, interpret and communicate numerical information in ways appropriate to a given discipline or discourse;
• The ability to lead, manage and contribute effectively to teams;
• The ability to work individually and independently;
• The ability to select and use appropriate tools and technologies;
• The ability to use online technologies effectively and ethically.

Prerequisites:	BU1007 OR BU1010 OR MA1401 OR MA2401
Inadmissible Subject Combinations:	BX3025 EC2100 EC5211

Availabilities
Townsville, Internal, Study Period 1
Census Date 24-Mar-2011
Coord/Lect:	Dr Rabiul Beg.
Contact hours:	24 hours lectures - Face-face teaching using computer 12 hours tutorials - Solution procedures of exercises 4 hours workshops/Seminars - Demonstration and problem solving
Assessment:	end of semester exam (% - 30%); other exams (% - 30%); tutorial attendance and participation (% - 10%); assignments (% - 30%).

Note: Minor variations might occur due to the continuous Subject quality improvement process, and in case of minor variation(s) in assessment details, the Subject Outline represents the latest official information.